A lower than expected adult Victorian community attack rate for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Academic Article uri icon


  • OBJECTIVES: To determine the community seropositivity of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza in order to estimate immunity and the community attack rate. METHODS: Selected clusters of participants (n=706) in the 'Victorian Health Monitor' (VHM), from whom blood samples were taken between August and October 2009, were tested opportunistically for antibodies to pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus. A titre of > or = 1:40 was chosen as the cut-off for recording seropositivity. The proportion (95% CI) of seropositive participants, aged 18 to <65 years of age, were computed for groups of census collection districts (CDs) across metropolitan Melbourne. RESULTS: The observed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 seropositivity rates for all CDs tested in metropolitan Melbourne was 16.0% (95% CI:12.9-19.1%); in northern Melbourne subset was 14.4% (95% CI:12.4-16.3%); and in eastern subset was 16.2% (95% CI:9.7-22.6%). The pre-pandemic (H1N1) 2009 positivity rate was estimated at 6%. CONCLUSION: Given this study's estimate of 16.0% seropositivity in adults in metropolitan Melbourne, and given the WHO laboratory's estimate of 6% pre-pandemic positivity, the estimated adult community attack rate was 10% for metropolitan Melbourne. IMPLICATIONS: This community attack rate is lower than anticipated and suggests that levels of immunity to Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 might be lower than anticipated. Although limited by a low response rate of 34%, this study suggests low adult seropositivity, which may be useful for public health professionals when encouraging the community to get vaccinated.


  • Grills, Nathan
  • Piers, Leonard S
  • Barr, Ian
  • Vaughan, Loretta M
  • Lester, Rosemary
  • Magliano, Dianna J
  • Shaw, Jonathan E
  • Carnie, John A

publication date

  • June 2010